Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread  

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segaertjonas
(@segaertjonas)
Eminent Member
Posted by: @hawwwran
Posted by: @lee-mad

@hawwwran

Just curious, what does MPETS stand for ?

My Printer Estimayed Time of Shippment

Calculated by my program. Prusa says 15.Jun, I say 18.May. Its calculated with every change in the spreadsheet. Will see if it stays the same or change in both ways. And how precise it is. I'm eager to find out, because it's three weeks different from Prusa estimate.

Care to estimate my actual delivery date based on your calculation? 🙂 

The more we try the method, the more we have an idea if it's acurate?

Posted : 22/04/2020 4:20 pm
Hawwwran
(@hawwwran)
Reputable Member
Posted by: @segaertjonas
Posted by: @hawwwran
Posted by: @lee-mad

@hawwwran

Just curious, what does MPETS stand for ?

My Printer Estimayed Time of Shippment

Calculated by my program. Prusa says 15.Jun, I say 18.May. Its calculated with every change in the spreadsheet. Will see if it stays the same or change in both ways. And how precise it is. I'm eager to find out, because it's three weeks different from Prusa estimate.

Care to estimate my actual delivery date based on your calculation? 🙂 

The more we try the method, the more we have an idea if it's acurate?

I can try. What is your order date?

I have come here to chew bubblegum and perfect my MINI ... and I'm all out of bubblegum....
Posted : 22/04/2020 4:48 pm
segaertjonas
(@segaertjonas)
Eminent Member

@hawwwran

It was 29Nov2019, order 375361 at the end I believe

Posted : 22/04/2020 5:00 pm
BoatBuilder
(@boatbuilder)
Eminent Member

I guess I won the Prusa Lotto.  My orange Mini + 2 rolls of Prusament ordered on 25/11/2020 were shipped today.   The shipping table projected shipping beginning May 16, but I will take this!   Not quite believing it, I waited for the DHL email to confirm they actually picked it up from Prusa and they did.

The delivery is scheduled for this Friday, 24/11/20, but since it is going all the way to California, I expect to have it delayed until Monday.  

A Bondtech stainless steel heat-break (and paste) and dual drive extruder are sitting here waiting for it.  I am going to install both while assembling the Mini since I want to print parts, not spend time taking care of design issues.  

This is my first printer, but I have been using a Taz 6 and a Markforged Mark 2 with carbon thread reinforcement for over a year at my local makerspace and have spent the last five months reading the Mini related posts in the forum, so I am a bit more than a newbee.  I will update the spreadsheet later today.

S//

Posted : 22/04/2020 5:22 pm
cwbullet
(@cwbullet)
Illustrious Member
Posted by: @vazovsky

I guess I won the Prusa Lotto.  My orange Mini + 2 rolls of Prusament ordered on 25/11/2020 were shipped today.   The shipping table projected shipping beginning May 16, but I will take this!   Not quite believing it, I waited for the DHL email to confirm they actually picked it up from Prusa and they did.

The delivery is scheduled for this Friday, 24/11/20, but since it is going all the way to California, I expect to have it delayed until Monday.  

A Bondtech stainless steel heat-break (and paste) and dual drive extruder are sitting here waiting for it.  I am going to install both while assembling the Mini since I want to print parts, not spend time taking care of design issues.  

This is my first printer, but I have been using a Taz 6 and a Markforged Mark 2 with carbon thread reinforcement for over a year at my local makerspace and have spent the last five months reading the Mini related posts in the forum, so I am a bit more than a newbee.  I will update the spreadsheet later today.

S//

Wow, 6 month delivery time?  That is a long time in shipment.  

--------------------
Chuck H
3D Printer Review Blog...
Posted : 22/04/2020 5:49 pm
indysam
(@indysam)
Active Member

She arrived this morning and is printing away! 

Word of advice, doing first layer adjustment with army green on the green steel sheet is not a good idea  🙂

...
Posted : 22/04/2020 6:08 pm
Dhaya and burtronix liked
Hawwwran
(@hawwwran)
Reputable Member

So, guys. I added new column in the spreadsheet (column S). It's called HPETS. I called the column R PPETS. PPETS is Prusa's estimate, HPETS is is estimate.

I expect my estimate to go down every day. It can rise up on weekends and then go down again on monday so you can check it it whenever you want to see my updated estimate for your printer. As you will see, it's quite optimistic. It does not count with Prusa's "ramping up" daily production so I expect the dates to go down slowly to even more more optimistic dates!

Looking on the shipping history, my estimates seems quite right. Prusa ships printers from very wide timeframe, but still. It's just an estimate and I hope it's a good estimate, because it's way earlier then Prusa's.

Let me know your ideas about the HPETS for your printer.

One little side note. I'm terrible with Excel, so It rely on sorted row. If your row is not on the right place, please move it it there to get the right HPETS.

I have come here to chew bubblegum and perfect my MINI ... and I'm all out of bubblegum....
Posted : 22/04/2020 6:24 pm
burtronix
(@burtronix)
Estimable Member

@hawwwran

I wouldn't say terrible at Excel. That's a nice linear forecasting algorithm.

 

Whatever you find to do with your hands, do with all your might!...
Posted : 22/04/2020 6:47 pm
Dave Storm
(@dave-storm)
New Member

Whoa - I just got my shipment notification from Prusa and DHL - order date Nov 30. Delivery scheduled Friday the 24th to California. Will update once I get it.

Posted : 22/04/2020 6:49 pm
Onlinedriver
(@onlinedriver)
Active Member

Greetings to everyone! I also filled the order data for my Prusa Mini in the table. How do you know what a printer revision is?
Could you tell me why I can't start a private conversation? (with @hawwwran)

Posted : 22/04/2020 6:51 pm
Greg
 Greg
(@greg-8)
New Member

@hawwwran

Been watching your spreadsheet for months.  Ordered mine around thanksgiving (21st).  Mentally, I figured my ship date around where your algorithm picked out.  Wonder why there's what looks like some sort of "random" scatter of mid november orders shipping non-chronologically.

Also, first post, learning this forum.  Not accustomed to posting in forums not named "reddit"

Posted : 22/04/2020 7:05 pm
BoatBuilder
(@boatbuilder)
Eminent Member

@charles-h13

Oops. That order date was 25/11/19, not in 2020. 

Posted : 22/04/2020 7:10 pm
Hawwwran
(@hawwwran)
Reputable Member
Posted by: @gmeine921

@hawwwran

Been watching your spreadsheet for months.  Ordered mine around thanksgiving (21st).  Mentally, I figured my ship date around where your algorithm picked out.  Wonder why there's what looks like some sort of "random" scatter of mid november orders shipping non-chronologically.

Also, first post, learning this forum.  Not accustomed to posting in forums not named "reddit"

Not my spreadsheet, to be fair. I just watch it and report. 

What I think is going on with the scatter:

There is a number of employees working on shipping the orders. They need to work on the order from start to end, because they test the components and aeep the track of the parts through the process. So I think, they got a batch of orders and some are faster then others so they ship scattered. The November should be shipped fully very soon so I find this plausible. But it's just a guess.

I have come here to chew bubblegum and perfect my MINI ... and I'm all out of bubblegum....
Posted : 22/04/2020 7:18 pm
segaertjonas
(@segaertjonas)
Eminent Member

@hawwwran

Instead of looking at the order dates, do the order numbers (last 6 digits) make more sense in a prediction strategy? Or do they show a direct correlation like you would expect?

Posted : 22/04/2020 8:07 pm
DJArts
(@djarts)
Active Member

I have this picture in my mind of some poor guy in the Prusa shipping room having dropped his binder on the floor with the order pages flying everywhere.  He scooped them back up and that's the order in which they are now being shipped.

Posted : 22/04/2020 9:10 pm
LeeM liked
kevinb2
(@kevinb2)
Active Member

I ordered my Prusa Mini on Dec 14, and just ordered an ebike a few days ago that states it'll take around a month to ship. There's now a race between the semi-preorders! I was betting that the ebike would arrive first, but now it seems like any package could win. Which one am I going to get to play with first?

Posted : 22/04/2020 9:25 pm
Hawwwran
(@hawwwran)
Reputable Member
Posted by: @segaertjonas

@hawwwran

Instead of looking at the order dates, do the order numbers (last 6 digits) make more sense in a prediction strategy? Or do they show a direct correlation like you would expect?

It's not much of a help as there are all other orders in the numbers. I would expect the statistics used for HPETS is strong enough. The scatter makes it it s predictable, but i would still expect the HPETS date as the date it should ship. It could be earlier if the scattering will be in your favour, but it should be usualy close to the HPETS date. 

You all could inform us how the HPETS fits for for your order once you get the shipping notification.

I have come here to chew bubblegum and perfect my MINI ... and I'm all out of bubblegum....
Posted : 22/04/2020 10:25 pm
Lemm_uk
(@lemm_uk)
Active Member

Mine has shipped, ordered 15/11/19. Marked in spreadsheet.

Posted : 23/04/2020 7:23 am
Lemm_uk
(@lemm_uk)
Active Member

You all could inform us how the HPETS fits for for your order once you get the shipping notification.

HPETS was 3 days off and so closer than PPETS 👍 

Would it be worth inserting a column for actual ship date? That way we can see HPETS accuracy at a glance 😀 

On a side note HPETS exactly predicted my birthday!

Posted : 23/04/2020 7:34 am
Hawwwran
(@hawwwran)
Reputable Member
Posted by: @lemm_uk

You all could inform us how the HPETS fits for for your order once you get the shipping notification.

HPETS was 3 days off and so closer than PPETS 👍 

Would it be worth inserting a column for actual ship date? That way we can see HPETS accuracy at a glance 😀 

On a side note HPETS exactly predicted my birthday!

Feel free to write the actual date dn column T. Yo cannot edit column headers, but you can put the column name "Actual shipping date" in the first order's row as I did with HPETS and PPETS.

3 days is sweet success. I would call a week a success. PPETS and HPETS are three weeks apart for fo order.

I have come here to chew bubblegum and perfect my MINI ... and I'm all out of bubblegum....
Posted : 23/04/2020 7:43 am
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